OFF WE GO THEN

EARLY THOUGHTS

There is normally a herd-like mentality about those who make predictions at this time of the year, opting for safety in numbers rather than being that outlier that gets called out by season’s end. (And with social media being such an unforgiving place - another example I noticed last night - can you blame them??)

The cynical side of me thinks this is why most pundits leave it until the last minutes, so that they can see what everybody else is thinking first…no such luck for me though.

As far as Leicester goes, the consensus appears to be “Top 4 at best, same as last season at worst.”

These were a few of the previews I noticed, with the sense taken from those behind the paywall but without breaching copyright:

The Times (£):

Could be improved
Running option. Despite boasting a ruthless maul, George Ford’s spiral bomb, and the powerful carrying of Jasper Wiese and Nemani Nadolo, Leicester often lacked a creative spark in attack last season. They made fewer carries per 80 (95.4) than any other team with the backs frequently struggling for fluency. They will hope the return of Freddie Burns and the addition of the Tonga wing Hosea Saumaki will address that.

RugbyPass talked to BT’s Nick Mullins:

“Borthwick has come in and taken them back to the old days. I think the signings are really clever – as we saw with the Lions van Staden is impressive. They’re getting some old-fashioned grunt back in the pack and with the likes of Freddie Burns and Bryce Hegarty there will be plenty to smile about.

“Although we seem to talk a lot about coaches and the standards they set these days Kevin Sinfield is going to be a really interesting story this season, as will Richard Wigglesworth and Matt Smith coming together to look after the attack. I’ll be surprised if they’re not pushing hard for the top four.”

The Guardian

“…Ford is set to begin his season as Leicester look to continue their upwards if uninspiring curve under Steve Borthwick. Smith is the incumbent in the England No 10 jersey and he will take some shifting after a miraculous season ended with a Lions call-up and a swashbuckling showing against the Stormers. Ford, however, is not ready to be put out to pasture just yet and has more than a month to steal a march on Smith and the rest of his rivals.”

COLOURS TO THE MAST

Everyone says that every league is wide open every season but this time, they might have a point. But I can’t help thinking that Harlequins’ shock win at the end of last season has left the idealists with pint-full glasses, rather than a steady half.

And it was a shock win. Bristol should have put Quins away in the semi-final and nine times out of ten, they would. It is truly one of the great acts of escapology in rugby.

But - without wishing to sound uncharitable - no way on earth do Quins win the title over a 22-game season alone.

Although their backs have been strengthened (Huw Jones once linked with Leicester, will add another creative option at centre), they will rely even more on Marcus Smith who could well be away for longer. Do they have enough to make the top four again?

Most think that there will be as many six or seven to compete for the title, but for what it’s worth, is that really realistic?

Weeding out the basement

Working from the bottom upwards, the one team who give cause for genuine concern is Gloucester. While I suspect WRW readers will shed few tears (though Ed Slater is always the one that got away..) there is talk of financial upheaval and the departure on loan of Joe Simpson to Saracens smacks of cutting the wage bill where possible.

Much is being made of Worcester’s recruitment but on the whole, I’m not convinced.

Sutherland and Judge up front, Owen Williams and Van Der Merwe will make a difference but there are too many signings of players aged 32 and above to give confidence of a resurgence.

Newcastle look like offering more of the same though we will all miss Toby Flood, but in less competitive times, London Irish would be climbing the table.

Declan Kidney generally gets the best out of his squad and it will be interesting to see how Ben White gets on there. Rory Jennings is an interesting signing from Clermont too.

Eating at the top table

Exeter have done their usual thing of recruiting promisingly but in low numbers. I am intrigued as to why they’ve signed two props in ex-Bath man Sam Nixon and the New Zealander Josh Iosefa-Scott - both tightheads. While they will have to rest players to start with, they will surely have enough to make yet a 7th straight Premiership Final.

Given that they took on Exeter in three of four Premiership finals between 2016 and 2019, Saracens will surely have enough now they are off the naughty step. Some bookmakers make them favourite to win it all, which is surprising but not ridiculous. They may not have the depth they once did and bar their fine Academy, seem to have quite a small senior squad.

Lions players will be missing to start with, but when they return - after a difficult year with England and the Lions - don’t think the likes of the Vunipolas, George and especially O.Farrell Esq will not have a thing to say or do.

What is to stop these two romping away with the home semi-finals again?

The rest

Before coming to the Tigers, we come to the other six teams

Many Leicester fans will have enjoyed seeing Bristol’s semi-final demise after *that* finish at Welford Road in the final home game. Following the lockdown’s financial hit, they have followed the trend for few signings, while Ben Earl and Max Malins will be obvious absentees back at Saracens.

Yet the pain of that defeat to Quins surely means Bristol - still lightly touched by international callups - will drive on for a semi-final place.

Bristol’s neighbours Bath slipped back last season and the arrival of Danny Cipriani has a whiff of panic about it. (Remember they thought they had Marcus Smith signed and sealed.) All their eggs are in the mercurial fly-half’s basket - even if it may not be around long-term - though it might be the missing link to ignite a still tasty backline. Bath remain a curate’s egg, albeit it a very posh one.

Wasps look interesting but only in the sense of how long the owners will wait before being tempted to install John Mitchell as Head Coach. Bar a late run to the 2019 Final, I’ve seen no sense of a club comfortable with itself in the last few years, though perhaps the new training ground will help.

Jack Willis and Joe Launchbury are out until 2022 after knee ligament injuries last season. Fifita and Stooke need to step up fast.

If there are to be teams bolting from the pack to challenge

Sale might catch some interest in Alex Sanderson’s first full season there. Recruitment has been Exeter-like in its sparseness but Nick Schonert is a more than handy replacement at tighthead. They will miss De Jager, Dan Du Preez and of course, De Klerk with the Springboks and in the early part of the season, Tom Curry. But they have a squad which can cope.

Northampton are the other team who could break out but I’m less convinced and not just because it’s Saints. Northampton felt like they were drifting at times last season and while they have a very good DOR in Chris Boyd, their recruitment largely replaces what they already have. Lomani and Skosan look interesting pickups, but I’m not convinced there is much more to Saints this season compared to last.

And Leicester?

So where will the Tigers be in the Premiership table come June? I’m feeling confident, but not entirely so.

Wiese, Van Staden and Montoya will be missed until December, but Nic Dolly’s pre-season form suggests he can do a job alongside Youngs before the Argentina captain returns and Charlie Clare recovers from injury.

A lot has been made of England call-ups, but Tigers’ squad is more able to cope than most, thanks to some decent summer recruitment. If Kelly is called up, Juan Pablo Socino steps up in the centre. For Steward, Hegarty come in and if Wells, Snyman, Henderson or Chessum.

For so long a weakness, Tigers’ recruitment stands them out especially among those looking to get into the top 4. With not a shot fired in anger, it looks the sharpest of the Premiership.

So not without reservation, I’m going for a top four of Exeter, Saracens, Sale and Leicester.

25/1 for Tigers to win the Premiership is an absolute bargain, too.

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A WORLD CUP EVERY TWO YEARS? WHY NOT?

The idea being mooted - however seriously - is of a World Cup every two years rather than four. The quotes from Rugby World Cup chief executive Alan Gilpin, in a Telegraph article from our good friend, Charles Richardson (£):

And a week after football turned the dial up on its own plans to stage a World Cup every two years, it is the revelation that the idea could be in considered in rugby’s corridors of power that could have the most wide-ranging implications for the fabric of the game.

“Biennial World Cups have been considered before and they’re definitely something that we will continue to consider” says Gilpin. “It’s an interesting concept, especially when you think about the global development of the women’s game, too.

“But the men's calendar is very congested and complex, with a lot of different stakeholders, and we have to make sure we engage with them all before we consider a World Cup every two years.”

Now that’s not a definite “Yes, we’re going to do it” but what would the consequences be?

• Negatives:
  Too much of the same thing would be the main complaint, that it would take something away from the product itself - the biggest tournament on the planet. Fair point.

  The RFU would try and negotiate similar preparation time and yes it would mean more time away from club teams for internationals. But I’m not sure the club owners would do anything other than take the money and run.

  While player welfare would be cited, this would surely replace fixtures already put in place.

• Positives:
  For many struggling unions around the world (ie all of them), a cash boost in 2025 would not be the worst idea alongside France 2023 and probably Australia in 2027.

  Having said that, those countries outside the Six Nations and the Rugby Championship - Georgia, the United States, Canada, Fiji, Samoa - would relish it.

  It would undoubtedly take precedence over the Lions tour, whose very concept would be in danger.. All of these games would also be under the behest of World Rugby, not the Six Nations.

  So the South and the old Tier 2 will go for it….but will the Six Nations? I wonder…

  And it may be just the thing to stimulate the women’s international scene and encourage more nations such as Wales to start taking it seriously.

It wouldn’t work in football - too many competitions would get in the way - and I suspect the Olympic movement would have a say too.

But it might in rugby.

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Good luck to you for the season ahead. I hear the Crumbie Terrace will be open for the first time in ages. Let’s all enjoy the noise wherever we are….

Chris