WRW #13: CHANGE IS A-COMING
Leicester are moving up the gears now
RUGBY ON TV THIS WEEKEND
Six Nations
Saturday: England v Italy, 2.15pm
Saturday: Wales v Scotland, 4.45pm
Sunday: Ireland v France, 3.00pm
Premiership
Friday: Gloucester v Bristol, 7.45pm
Friday: Sale v Bath, 7.45pm
Saturday: Harlequins v TIGERS, 4pm
Saturday: Exeter v London Irish, 4.15pm
Saturday: Northampton v Newcastle, 4.30pm
Sunday: Worcester v Wasps, 1pm
Pro14
Friday: Dragons v Edinburgh, 7.35pm
Saturday: Glasgow v Treviso, 2.30pm
WHO’S STAYING AND WHO’S GOING?
Now that Julian Montoya has arrived and Jordan Taufua has left, we can look at how the Tigers squad is taking shape for next season. Steve Borthwick is sounding bullish about the shape in which it is being developed.
The Leicester head coach is also suggesting that it will be a smaller squad and if the Development League does not continue season, that looks even more likely
Sunday’s news of another South African lock on the horizon, will come as no surprise to WRW readers. While the Stormers’ JD Schickerling was considered by Tigers, I understand they are now looking further afield. Surely though with the development of the locks this season, Lavanini and Enever’s departure, Borthwick will want nothing but international class - and they are not easy or cheap to find. Anyone for George Kruis?
In the back row, I understand a deal for Bulls’ openside Marco Van Staden is close to fruition. His powerful style - earning him the nickname Eskom after the South Africa electricity company - will see him compared to Jasper Wiese as well as Jordan Taufua.
It looks unlikely that he can arrive before the end of this season, but if it can be done, it will.
And Edinburgh’s signing of a third experienced loosehead in Boan Venter to back up Pierre Schoeman and Rory Sutherland gives hope that Luan De Bruin will stay at Welford Road after this season. However, his ability to back up at tight head behind veteran WP Nel still makes you wonder if any Leicester bid would work out,
What is Borthwick looking for? Power, set-piece strength and control via a strong lineout maul and yes, good tactical kicking. Judging by results and performances, they are definitely a level above the bottom three teams in the Premiership and deserve to be in the middle rank, though these things can change.
We can also get a guide as to who is in Borthwick’s favour. Below are all the players who have been involved in half of the games so far- Wells and Heyes are the only players to feature in all eight.
Props: Leatigaga, Cole, Heyes (+ Genge)
Hookers: Tom Youngs, Clare (+Montoya)
Locks: Wells, Green, Lavanini
Backrow: Liebenberg, Brink, Reffell, Wiese, Taufua
Scrum-Halves: Wigglesworth, White, (+ Youngs)
Fly-Halves: Henry, Diaz Bonilla, (+ Ford)
Centres: Scott, Porter, Taute, Murimurivalu (+Moroni)
Back Three: Van Wyk, Nadolo, Steward
When you throw in the internationals or those newly arrived at the club (in bold) and take out Lyon’s Jordan Taufua, this makes close to 30 players within the first team circle.
Of course, this group remains open to all within the frst-term squad to join. Porter may well soon absent this group as Moroni establishes himself at the club. Similarly, Van Poortvliet is pushing for the “third” spot at nine, behind Wigglesworth and Youngs.
On the other side of the ledger, 20 players are yet to trouble those announcing the teams. They include several recent Academy graduates, but also a number of players who have made first team appearances in the past - Sam Aspland-Robinson, Jordan Coghlan, Tom Hardwick, Sam Lewis, Jordan Olowofela, Thom Smith and George Worth as well as recent signing Shalva Mamumkashvili.
They may well get their chance especially during this nine week run of Premiership games till mid-March. But some will be looking over their shoulders at the same time. Especially if Covid continues its horrific blight, another 15 to 20 players could well be leaving this summer once more.
Freedom of movement?
Gigena’s departure raised an interesting point about foreign players especially in a post-Brexit environment. Prior to this season, only two “foreign” players were allowed to play in each Premiership 23, but under the Kolpak rulings, South Africas, Fijians, Samoans and Tongans counted as home players. Players from Argentina, New Zealand and Australia were counted as foreign, unless they had UK or EU dual nationality.
Legal minds tell me that there is no change for this season and probably for the immediate future, as Premiership regulations continue to refer to EU law. We shall see what change comes eventually, with some calling as recently as last year for an increase in overseas quota, to compensate. Without knowing who has a second passport, it’s impossible to judge whether Gigena has fallen foul of this.
While we are on this subject, football is way ahead in its administration, with a whole plan devised and in place, as of last October. While this refers to visas solely, all foreign players wull have to apply for a GBE (Governing Body Endorsement).
The GBE will operate a points-based system, where points are scored for senior and talented young players based on:
• Senior and youth international appearances
• Quality of the selling club, based on the league they are in, league position and progression in continental competition
• Club appearances, based on domestic league and continental competition minutes
WORCESTER REVIEW
For Uncle Joe, meet Ian Cockerill. Now he knows a thing or two.
There we were on Saturday in our various bunkers, quietly purring about a Tigers pack moving in the right direction, which just happened to be right through a below-par Worcester pack who simply had no answer. Five Leicester tries - all finished off from close-range - highlighted a chasm between the two front fives, one of which had shades of international quality and the other, a worrying lack of Premiership class.
Leicester were more precise, a tad more open in their play and overall the gameplan and the selection seemed in much greater harmony. Tigers up are beginning to show a real ruthlessness up front, with Montoya and De Bruin not noted for their depth in Tigers colours.
And this is where Cockers’ innate sense kicks in. Leicester’s three wins have come against the Premiership’s three worst defences in Bath, Worcester and Gloucester. They came up short against Exeter, underperformed at London Irish and while not brilliant, were undone by Sale’s defensive excellence.
There has been a lot of departures in recent months, but Leicester are developing a quality pack which is gelling nicely. While you can’t say the outside backs were flogged, one loose pass got between Matt Scott and a fine try.
At the risk of sounding like Paul Merson on Sky Sports News, they are not far from a high-quality pack capable of taking them to challenge for silverware. Three or four more signings might put them in that position - a lock, an openside, a loose-head and possibly a 12.
I can hear Ian suggesting caution, but if those names come in between now and the end of the year, Leicester’s troubles will be well behind them - and their new-found depth will have them in a place where few will want to take them on.
ENGLAND - THE WRITING WAS ON THE WALL
There are plenty around these parts who are biased about George Ford, but you could not imagine him blowing a SEVEN on two overlap surely?
Yet for all of England’s inadequacies against Scotland, was it really a surprise? Can you really criticise players who have simply not played in a month? The selection of Wilson in place of the injured Underhill struck some like George Chuter as a defensive one before kick-off.
What’s more, you can’t justify any of the PR guff about wanting to expand your horizons when you put your most creative playmaker on the bench, almost entirely ignore a potential second playmaker at 13 and then only give your 12 a handful of sights of the ball. Is that execution or poor planning?
There is one thing for a coach to be pragmatic. But dogmatic? As well as Scotland played - and Cameron Redpath looked very assured for an international debutant - England’s selection betrayed a mindset of taking a calculated risk with Italy to come before Wales, France and Ireland.
The usual calls to make changes will be sounded this week and this week, they sound evem dafter than ever. But the biggest change has surely to come from the coaching staff.
England will be much sharper when they go to Cardiff. And they had better be.
PRIVATE EQUITY PART 2 - MORE OF THE SAME PLEASE
Last week, WRW touched on CVC’s deals with Northern Hemisphere rugby and compared them with the originator of private equity investment within sport. But while CVC have established a stranglehold on the UK and Ireland game, there are plenty of other funds looking for a piece of the pie.
The most high-profile deal outside of Europe, are the proposals from Silver Lake. The price? A reported £243 million pounds on current exchange rates - only a third less of what the ENTIRE Six Nations will receive from CVC - in return for 15% of commercial rights.
It’s important to work out who these investors are. Silver Lake is a Californian technology investor with sports investment history, having pumped over £360 million into the Manchester City Football Group among other investments.
With their tech background, you can see how such an investor could add value, as hinted at in the New Zealand Herald last week:
NZ Rugby's plans involve setting up a new subsidiary company, dubbed CommercialCo, which will be responsible for maximising commercial rights, including broadcast, sponsorship, merchandising and growing future revenue streams such as streaming, Esports and global coaching clinics.
Leading Australian financial daily, the Australian Financial Review, suggested Rugby Australia are a target, too, though they were playing a waiting game back in January.
Rugby Australia chairman Hamish McLennan said the sporting body was interested to see where the deal with New Zealand lands and Rugby Australia has had high-level conversations with NZR to gauge its thinking on private equity buying in.
"Of most interest to me is whether an Anzac bloc makes sense to both parties [NZR & RA] to see if we can get more leverage working together," Mr McLennan told the Financial Review.
South Africa were looking at the issue last summer, according to their media, with CVC and Silver Lake again reported to be in talks with SARU CEO Jurie Roux.
At least Roux - who has his own financial issues to sort out - has his eyes wide open in public about what compromises are forced on you, if you get involved with private equity. These were his thoughts…
“You need to be realistic about equity; an equity partner is not your friend,” says Roux.
“They are there to make money, along with you, and in the end, sell that stake to somebody else or sell it back to you or publicly list that." As long as you’re aware of what you’re doing and what you’re entering….you just need to go into it with your eyes open.”
“What equity companies are telling us is that we are doing a pretty bad job of what were doing and they see a bigger commercial value than we are seeing.”
Tread carefully, then. Especially if you want to avoid being swallowed up entirely.
It’s been rather naively claimed that this extra investment could somehow create a whole new worldwide movement to unify rugby.
Rugby had the chance to unify nearly two years ago, with the World Rugby scheme to develop a Nations Championship. Backed by Swiss marketing giant, Infront, this would have seen £5 billion invested in the worldwide game over 12 years.
Basically, the choice was driven by the Six Nations. They opted to take the CVC money, relinquish commercial control (albeit soothed by the prospect of substantially bigger profits) rather than lose control of the world game to World Rugby and introduce relegation to the Six Nations. (There hasn’t been a chair of World Rugby outside of the old Five Nations since 1993)
Each individual nation will see its bottom line affected by slightly different methods - the Six Nations by its own championship, New Zealand by the marketing of the All Blacks, Australia by staying as close to NZ as possible but having bigger stadia to take advantage of the Wallabies, South Africa is in no man’s land and has to decide fast which way it leans, while Argentina, Japan, the US, the Pacific Islands all have their uses but will have to bend to the private equity knee.
It’s possible the world game can come together and all sing Kumbayah, in a moment of peace and reconciliation. If it is in each rightsholders’ interests to do so, they will do so. But with all their different interests increasingly backed by PE funds, don’t expect it to happen. Everyone continues to look out for themselves.
Next week - how the global game grows over the next ten years.
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RUNNING FROM DEEP
Graham Simmons - ex-Sky rugby reporter with a wit and human touch his successors singularly failed to provide - writes for The XV on England’s Twickenham debacle.
I’ve not read anything better this year and I hope you have a subscription, but these bits stood out:
Eddie Jones, as ever when the final whistle feels like a mercy and someone shoves a microphone in his face, fell back onto what I call his ‘circular square dance’ routine. It goes like this:
Question: ‘Shit, Eddie, what happened there?’
Eddie: ‘Mate, I screwed up. My fault. I got the preparation wrong.’
Question: ‘And what did you get wrong?’
Eddie: ‘Aw, mate, if I knew that, I wouldn’t have got it wrong, would I?’
To which the next question, of course, should be, ‘Well, forgive me, but if you don’t know what you got wrong then how do you know it was your fault?’ but if you’re TV’s pitch-side poke – and you’ll have to trust me on this one – descending into the realms of sophistry three questions into your ninety-second allowance doesn’t butter too many parsnips. You’re there to club the guy to death with your microphone, not engage him in paralogical debate.
Besides, there were other – better – lines of enquiry beyond playing the blame game. ‘Mate, we had no possession,’ whined Jones, this, I confess, being the point at which I spilt my beer all over the sofa. ‘Mate’, if you kick the ball to the opposition all afternoon, then you can’t really turn round afterwards and say we had no possession. It’s like putting your last fiver on a three-legged horse in the 4.30 at Newton Abbott and then moaning you’re broke.
Compare, if you will, Ollie Lawrence and Cameron Redpath – not directly given one’s an apple and the other’s an orange – but rather how gainfully the two youngsters were employed by their fly-halves. Redpath – sublime on debut – was everywhere and involved in almost everything, one of the cornerstones of the Scotland win; Lawrence, bless him, didn’t get a single pass for sixty-three minutes. Let that sink in for a moment. He’s a kid playing twelve – playing twelve – for his country and NO ONE PASSED HIM THE BLOODY BALL FOR AN HOUR.
Jonny May dropped two dollies. Not one but two. That’s Olivier drying at Stratford or Kardashian forgetting her eyeliner. Does not happen. So, was he simply astonished to discover there was a ball on the pitch or was he sitting out there on the wing, ignored, exasperated, anxious, overthinking, wondering why on earth he’d been selected and – understandably – losing an inch or two of focus? I’m just speculating; only he’d know.
He would leave a big gap in the side not just because of his quality as a player, but because the Bulls have a relative lack of specialist openside flanks in their systems. The role of Van Staden as a fetcher and breakdown disrupter is not easily replicable and there are not many that offer what he does.
Red-carded players can be replaced by a substitute after 20 minutes, while a five-second time limit to use the ball once available will also be policed to eradicate tedious “caterpillar” rucking.
Teams will also have just 30 seconds to restart play after points are scored, while scrum resets will be timed by the television match official to crack down on unnecessary delays.
If a match is drawn, the team that scores the first try in extra-time will automatically win the match, in a tweak to encourage more attacking play in the Super Time initiative introduced last year.
Thoughts very welcome in the comments section….
Thanks for your time this week. Do recommend WRW to your friends and I’ll see you again in seven days.
Mr Egerton, first time on here. Well worth it, superb read. Thank you
Many thanks Chris, thoroughly enjoyed it all.