WRW: SIX NATIONS EXTRA (and a whole lot more)
TEAMS OUT
Once more, a Leicester selection shows the strength in depth that Tigers are developing.
No Cole, Tom Youngs, Green, Wiese in the 23 with De Bruin and Wells on the bench, but it leaves Leicester arguably at parity in the front five and with a back row who will need to be at their best against Ewers, Vermeulen and Simmonds. I wouldn’t expect that pack to go backwards in a hurry.
But it’s the backs that interest me a great deal where the coaching team have. Keep an eye on the new centre partnership goes, with Scott in the Leicester 13 shirt for the first time I believe and partnering Kelly named at 12, also for the first time.
I still wonder whether Tigers will want a more robust 12 long-term, but Kelly has another chance to shine and I suspect Scott might get more attacking opportunities.
Anything they can get is a bonus this weekend, but this is another chance to get their performance right ahead of some season-defining games.
LEICESTER FOR LIONS?
I’ve never been one to overdo Lions speculation but this year, that need to clamp down has been more important.
Some of the influences on selection are yet to be determined. We don’t know where they will face South Africa yet though time is getting on, how many players they will take and whether a reduced schedule around the UK will necessitate a smaller playing squad. But a Welsh Grand Slam - as it so often proves - may end up swinging close selection calls.
So for me, the end of the Six Nations remains the place where Lions selection debate becomes relevant, though I still need to be convinced that the Lions role in a global rugby calendar should be quite so secure.
It’s become clear that as in 2017, Steve Borthwick will be part of the Lions coaching team. But of the three England squad members. getting playing time under Eddie Jones, will be joining the Head Coach?
BEN YOUNGS
For Youngs, this would be his third Lions selection, but of course the first since he dropped out of the 2017 version amid sister-in-law Tiffany’s health issue, now happily resolved for the better.
This is a very open field and assuming Gatland doesn’t go for an uncapped option, Youngs stands head and shoulders above the competition.
What of the competition? Wales are producing some fine scrum-halves as they did with opensides a few years ago, but Tomos Williams was injured before the Six Nations. I’ve never been convinced entirely about Ali Price. Ireland are picking Gibson-Park above Murray right now.
No-one is heads and shoulders over their rivals in the position. Despite his detractors around England, I think Youngs will make it after improving throughout the Championship. A similar display against Ireland wouldn’t hurt to to firm up his place.
Lions chances: 7/10
ELLIS GENGE
As ever, the one to look out for is Ellis Genge, who some observers suggests. has not quite beenso sharp as in previous years.
Again, basing on what Gatland has done in the past, he eventually picked eight props for New Zealand (Vunipola, McGrath, Marler, Dell at loosehead, with Cole, Sinckler, Furlong and Francis on the tight side). Given how important the physical challenge will be against the Springboks up front, I cannot see them taking any fewer from the start.
From the four loose-heads, it’s impossible to imagine Vunipola not going, Marler may not want to tour at all, while Dell and McGrath aren’t part of their international setups any longer.
Wales’ Wyn Jones looks certain to join the Saracen, Dave Kilcoyne has been useful off the bench for Ireland and I wonder about picking him ahead of Cian Healy, which leaves Healy, Scotland’s Rory Sutherland and Genge fighting over one position.
It’s a really tight call and I wonder if the character of Genge might win him the vote.
Lions chances: 6/10
GEORGE FORD
Despite being one of Leicester’s most influential players, I am least confident about Ford’s chances. A Lions tour has so far eluded him and while he is the most natural attacking pivot Jones selects, you always wonder whether he would pick Farrell ahead of him at 10, had he better options at 12.
Definitely not a 12, the chances of Warren Gatland going with two fly-halves are arguably stronger now, with the lack of travelling and that hurts Ford more.
In 2017, it was Farrell, Biggar and Sexton. Farrell will definitely go again and while Hogg can also cover 10. If Gatland picks 3, Biggar will go especially if Wales win tomorrow. Then it’s either Sexton or Russell or Ford for the final place and I just wonder about the Scot - one of the six called-up mid-tour for midweek games - nipping past the Ireland legend. But Ford may well miss out..
If it’s either Sexton, Biggar or even Finn Russell for the other spot based on what Gatland has selected in the past. I’m not sure Sexton will make another tour and if Wales win tomorrow, I could see him going for Biggar.
Lions chances: 4/10
A BUSY WEEKEND IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP
No game for Saracens this weekend….but the table remains intriguing:
Tonight, Ealing go to Coventry, Doncaster to Hartpury while Cornish Pirates host Bedford on Sunday lunchtime.
Key games to come:
March 27th: Doncaster v Pirates
April 10th: Pirates v Ealing
April 18th: Doncaster v Saracens
April 25th: Saracens v Ealing
May 22nd: Ealing v Doncaster
…AND ALSO IN THE PREMIER 15s
Big game for Loughborough Lightning at home to playoff rivals Wasps.
Lightning are currently 7 points clear in 3rd, of Wasps who lie 4th, and after this weekend there are only three more league gams left before the playoffs. Live streaming too..
QUICK HITS
Matt Toomua being Matt Toomua amid 18 individual points for Melbourne
Major League Rugby launches this weekend, but…..
And just in….
RUNNING FROM DEEP
In addition to the launch of the United States’ new MLR season, it seems USA and Canada’s chances of reaching Rugby World Cup 2023 have improved thanks to Covid.
Due to the inability to host international matches during the COVID-19 global pandemic, the Rugby Americas North (RAN) 15-a-side competition involving Mexico and Caribbean nations that traditionally acts as the initial phase of qualification in our region will not take place in this four-year cycle.
Therefore, USA and Canada will automatically represent RAN in the next stages of qualification for the 2023 RWC tournament.
To be fair, it would be difficult to see them not going forward with Mexico their nearest rivals ranked way below them in the table.
They will presumably meet to determine who is ranked Americas North 1 and Americas North 2, who will then face their Southern counterparts to determine the two RWC qualifiers from the Americas as a whole.
Wales go for the Grand Slam tomorrow in Paris (shush, Bled) and this excellent piece from Dafydd Pritchard sums up the journey from 2019 rather well. It might also explain why Wales started poorly under Pivac in 2020:
The mantra is clear. Speaking to various members of the Wales squad, you get the impression that the players buy into Pivac's vision. They grasped the long-term purpose of their efforts during a difficult autumn, and now they are enjoying the fruits of their labour.
Another who has played under Pivac for Wales and Scarlets is fly-half Rhys Patchell, absent from this Six Nations because of injury.
"Wayne is very good at creating an environment where the boys feel that they are driving it," he said before last month's win over England.
"Once you gain a bit of momentum, he's very good at capitalising on that momentum and then it almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Fascinating piece from Australia’s ABC which shows the Wallabies and their Super Rugby sides know they need to work on the goalkicking, with more tries from wide out:
Even when in very clear kicking range, the Brumbies would kick for the corner, win their lineout and set their deadly maul a course for the try-line.
And it worked; in 2019, hooker Folau Fainga'a was the Brumbies' leading try-scorer with 12, the vast majority of them at the back of the lineout drive.
A consequence of this tactic, however, was that tries scored from a lineout and rolling maul are almost always out wide, thus making the conversion more difficult. Lealiifano kicked 48 of 64 conversions in 2019, a success rate of three in every four.
But the Brumbies would argue – and still argue – that even five points in the corner is a better outcome than three points in front of the posts.
In 2019, the four Australian Super Rugby sides – the Western Force were still exiled back then – ranged from the Queensland Reds kicking at a collective 79 per cent to the Melbourne Rebels at 68 per cent. The South African sides and the best of the New Zealand sides were all pushing 80 per cent and well beyond in some cases.
BREAKING NEWS
Thanks so much to you for your fabulous support of Welford Road Weekly. Sign-up numbers have increased by 50% since the start of the Six Nations, so I’ll continue to post on Fridays.
However, sign-ups will now receive an edition on MONDAYS as well.
That’s three copies of news, articles, stories from Leicester Tigers and around the rugby world each week. If you like what you read now, then I hope you’ll enjoy this new publication. So if there’s ever a time to make sure you’re part of the rapidly growing Welford Road Weekly family, it’s now.
Just one thought though.
With three editions a week, I will be reaching the limits of what I can do for free and while I will always keep adverts out (especially the intrusive type), there are still things I want to add to this blog and I may need soon to introduce a paid element to do that.
I’ll put a survey out on Monday which I hope you’ll consider contributing towards. But in the meantime, if you have any reactions - positive or negative - email me at welfordroadweekly@substack.com.
Remember to check your inbox on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays from now on and enjoy your weekend.
Chris
Thanks again Chris
Agree with Kerryn, would be happy to contribute to my favorite weekly newsletter. I live in the states and loosely follow MLR. Surprised at those rules changes, especially the offside lines. I suspect there will be some unintended consequences, but we shall see!