WRW SIX NATIONS EXTRA: RACE FOR TOP 6 STARTS HERE
TIGERS v LONDON IRISH TONIGHT
No Montoya v Creevy which would have been fun, but plenty to enjoy tonight at Welford Road and it is a game that could see two decent, but under-appreciated teams go full-bore at each other.
While both will fancy their chances in the Challenge Cup, especially after the draw for the knockout stages is made early next week, you could see both teams building a race towards the top 4.
Irish have scored four try bonus points in their last six games, leaving them with just one defeat (3 wins and 2 draws) during that period. Tigers may have won three themselves, but the battle up front will be fascinating.
Halfway into the season, Bristol and Exeter look well set in the top four places, but with Sale’s dip, it’s anyone from eight clubs for the last two places. A win for Tigers tonight puts them right in the mix for a top 6 place,
In fact - and doesn’t this show how Leicester have improved - a bonus point win tonight will Tigers them match their entire points tally and number of wins for the whole of last season.
Take out the Exeter game on March 20th and you have 8 games between now and when they play Bristol in Round 21, which will define Leicester’s season:
H: London Irish, Newcastle, Northampton, Harlequins,
A: Gloucester, Bath, Sale, Worcester
It feels as if Bath’s 67 points to finish 4th last season, will be way more than sufficient this time. But what will leave Leicester in the mix with two rounds to go?
I’m confident they can win all four home games to come, but how many on the road? Two is possible, three may be needed to make the top six, assuming they don’t surprise in Devon.
Irish are no Exeter (neither are Leicester) but a front five with Creevy, Mafi and Simmons - all with bags of international experience - needs to be respected. They are not Worcester. Plus Henry needs to have his consistent side out for the next three games, when presumably Ford will return.
For all the improvement in Leicester’s shape, cohesion and sheer bloody-mindedness, results are only just starting to turn around. Tigers will unquestionably be stronger next season, with more time for players to gel together especially in the backs.
But can they build a run now to give them a tangible sense of achievement when it comes to the table? And how much hope or even expectation should Leicester fans have?
Look forward to your company tonight on the wireless. BBC Leicester are on DAB again tonight from 7.
Usual word of warning - if you want the online stream, go to the BBC Sport website not the BBC Leicester feed (always connected to FM). Do spread the word.
ABSENT FRIENDS
George Worth and Jordan Olowofela’s arrival in Australia for the Super Rugby season gives them a chance at another lifestyle in Melbourne and Perth respectively. If I had been seconded to Melbourne for 6 months, I would be sampling the lifestyle even more vigorously than them…but for them, it is a chance to re-assess and rebuild their careers at 24 and 22 respectively.
In particular, Olowofela has the chance to show what he can do. The e ex-Leinster, Ireland and Lions full back Rob Kearney can help him adjust among others. Not every young player comes through but for someone who was one of the standouts of the England Junior World Championship winning squad of 2018, he has the talent to do so.
Overall there are now nine players out on loan - the other seven being Sam Lewis at Coventry, Coghlan, Ilione, Dimen, Browning at Nottingham, Law at Ampthill, while Harry Glynn is in France with the La Rochelle Espoirs.
For those aged above 21, fewer chances come along and when a coach doesn’t pick you after half the season, then even the strongest-minded would wonder about their futures. Coghlan was last seen on the bench at Bristol last season and at 28, it would be a surprise to see him back in a Tigers shirt barring injury.
Worth at 24, Olowofela, Lewis and Osman Dimen at 22 may be starting to wonder, even if all signed new contracts last year. Law at 20, with Browning, Glynn and especially Ilione at 19 will still have time on their side.
But if you were to add those five to the seven leaving or having already left, with other futures distinctly, the likelihood is of Borthwick stamping his mark very firmly on squad this summer
ENGLAND PLAYERS BACK TO CLUBS OR NOT?
The question of whether England players are being released or not back to their clubs this weekend, has become interesting this week.
At the start of the championship, it was made clear that no players would be released from the bubble after conversations with the clubs. In compensation, a smaller squad was selected.
After two defeats in three, alongside the announcement of David Ribbans joining the squad on Wednesday, came this:
Would you tell Eddie Jones you wanted to return home?
Now it is also becoming clear that England are not just meeting up on Sunday but training then too.
NB Just one England player (Beno Obano) appears to have been released and is playing this weekend. What’s going on?
OUR CORRESPONDENT WRITES:
From Ashton West:
Hi Chris
A very interesting and thought provoking edition.
Having just finished wading through the Leicester Football Club Plc Annual Report and Financial Statements for 2019/20, I think your summary of the key points and questions covers the situation very well. Obviously the last 3 months of the financial year were influenced by the unprecedented events flowing from the pandemic and they also have to deal with post balance sheet events. Therefore, much of the Chairman's Statement and Business Review are, understandably, explaining the significant impact of this and the difficult decisions that had to be made. However, as you allude to in your commentary, the numbers don't really reflect the true impact which we will not see until after June of this year.
What really concerns me though is that the troubles seem to go deeper than the impact of the pandemic. The trend in terms of season ticket sales is alarming, falling from a high of 15,239 in season 2014/15 to 12,024 in 2019/20. Each of those 5 years showed a reduction from the previous year. The trend in average attendance has also shown a reduction, although not the year on year progression of season ticket sales. Commercial income has also reduced from its peak in 2014/15. In fact, with the exception of PRL income, none of the year on year comparisons make comfortable reading.
On pitch performance is clearly a substantial element in terms of waning interest but are the changes in the game having an impact too? Matches now sometimes last longer than football matches because of the TMO. The immediate excitement of the moment is often diluted by having to replay on screen. I am all in favour of taking blatant foul play out of the game but some of the yellow and red cards are being shown only after having studied incidents in ultra-slow motion when the game is a high speed contact sport and mistakes of judgement will inevitably be made. Are we on an inevitable trajectory to professional tag rugby? Maybe the youngsters of today will just grow up with these changes and know nothing different but the kids of today have so many other alternative attractions to occupy their spare time. The core heartbeat of traditional rugby fans may just start to stutter and see some turn their backs on the sport we loved.
I am no longer convinced that professional rugby is the 'next great thing' to provide perpetually growing audiences, whether for live matches or commercial TV. If this is correct, against such a landscape the picture might not be as clear as Leicester Tigers would like it to be. I hope I am wrong.
Keep up the good work
Thoughts welcome, everyone..
HOW TO BUILD TIGERS BACK BETTER
I was contacted by a friend who works in financial circles this week after the accounts came out and he hinted that those looking at sports investments might have a slightly different perspective on Leicester might sit. He posed a few questions worth considering:
Three questions get the conversation about investment going:
What is the ideal future?
Where is the Tigers’ business right now?
What is required to make progress off the pitch?
In the view of this potential investor, Tigers are stretched financially in terms of cash, credit and investment and beyond the owners’ stated desire, there is a patent need for the third option - investment.
While the value of the club is often discussed, what is the strategy to attract an ideal investor?
Who is the investor they would seek - a specialist in sports business such as Gerry Cardinale who we have discussed in previous WRW editions; a private equity fund such as CVC or a High Net Worth individual or family? There would be pros and cons, with each option. And ideally, you would want them approaching you…
Was the estimated slice of £625,000 on the sale process well spent? Without disparaging anyone, did Zeus Capital lack the wherewithal to attract the ideal investor (there was reportedly no shortage of interest) or were the shareholders’ or potential buyers’ expectations, as indicated in this week’s accounts, just unrealistic?
If new investment does not arrive in the next three years until the new TV deal is agreed, what would Leicester lose out on? What could the club be doing to define the brand and generate more receipts, but won’t be able to do so?
Defining the brand sounds like some smug marketing phrase knocked up over a couple of lattes, but it does have a purpose. Look at what other sporting clubs do to line up their passions and their skills to meet their needs, both now and in the future.
What actions define Saracens’ brand? Tarnished yes by the salary cap scandal, but lose the eye-patch for a second. Setting up their own school and prioritising wellbeing and player welfare gives them the feel of a family club.
Mercedes F1 team has an entire business set up around the well-being and elite development of senior leaders.
Both Barcelona and Bayern Munich act in part as digital incubators, so that entrepreneurs meet good business minds and potential investors.
Therefore, what actions define the Leicester #Tigersfamily brand and map out the ideal future for Tigers?
In a world of private equity, does the way we run our sporting clubs have to change? I’m not certain that in all cases, that is necessarily true.
You could argue that Tom Scott is exactly the type of private investor most clubs need right now and there is much to be said for long-term ownership rooted within the history of any club.
If a rich family or individual put their money in, you will see their motivations connected to their investment very quickly. It is also much more flexible than say, the rigid motivations of a private equity fund whose need to serve the needs of their pension fund investors, is paramount.
If the bankers decide that the yields are not good enough within sport, that leaves businesses with few places to go.
Those wishing for a “sunlit uplands” vision of sport with private equity, may still want to take that option, but be aware of the risks.
QUICK HITS
🚨🚨🚨🚨 QUELLE SURPRISE 🚨🚨🚨🚨
Honest Bernard Laporte rides off into the sunset again. And on the basis of “it’s not what you know, it’s who you know”, this below makes absolute sense.
RUNNING FROM DEEP
There is some incredibly good writing out there right now and not just from the usual sources, eg Rob Kitson, Hugh Godwin, Chris Jones of the BBC variety.
This is damning from James While from Planet Rugby on England:
They say you can prove anything with statistics, but the key takeouts here are that, for a side that at their best, score early and attack early, England are losing every piece of front-foot momentum within the first quarter. In each game, there’s been an early flurry of penalties, a regrouping, which in every instance would have meant a more cautious approach thereafter, and a nullifying of any early attacking intent.
There’s clearly a need for introspection during the early stages of the game – methodically sticking to legality during the period where referees are traditionally ‘stamping their authority’ on the game and framing the way they want to manage the breakdown.
What is absolutely certain is against good sides who are showing the referees greater legality, England have spent this entire campaign playing a form of catch-up rugby and against the very best they will lose far more Tests than they’ll win, unless they can sort out that early discipline.
Again, from unusual sources and not behind a paywall, Sam Larner’s piece on the Official Six Nations website, points to how England and Frances’ fortunes have diverged:
The two standout teams in the table above are England and France. England conceded five penalties more than they were awarded last year so ill-discipline was an issue but it has become much worse in 2021. They are the joint most penalised team on a per-game basis and only France are awarded fewer penalties. France have been the antithesis of England, they have sorted the problems that led to them being the most penalised team last year. In 2020 France conceded the most penalties in the scrum and were caught offside more than anyone else. This year they have yet to be caught offside and concede the third fewest scrum penalties.
Away from the Six Nations, good luck to those starting in the Championship finally this weekend and especially those ex-Tigers, including Ealing’s Guy Thompson who has a column in the Talking Rugby Union site.
I still don’t believe ring-fencing is the option, but what I do believe is a 14-team league is the way forward. The reason I think this is because at the moment, there are 12 sides in the Premiership with one side always going up or down.
Let’s be honest, Ealing have finished second the last three years. Given the opportunity and the money they would get if they got relegated, they could reinvest and really give it a go in this 14-team league. Not only would it spread the England international players out amongst the league, but it is also going to create more squad numbers and more playing opportunities for more English and more British guys. If there are 14 teams in the league, keep the salary cap as it is, but start bringing through the young guys.
Were Saracens to fail to be promoted back to the Premiership, would they survive? Their own set of accounts published this week suggest there’s a chance they might not, according to the i paper:
Signing off on accounts filed to Companies House this week, Jamie Sherman of Moore Kingston Smith said: “Although the board believes that promotion to the Gallagher Premiership will be achieved, there can be no guarantee this will be the case.”
Should Saracens fail to win the Championship, Sherman added that “a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the group’s ability to continue as a going concern”.
NB Most accountants would say the same about any club in this position, but it remains striking to see it there in black and white.
Enjoy your rugby this weekend. Any comments, go to welfordroadweekly@substack.com
See you again next week.
Chris
The future of Tigers PLC?? Well, we may accept that there is only one world super-sport (Soccer) and cricket, rugby union, F1 etc compete for the tier two slots. Crowds at MWWR have probably peaked so no more stadium investment needed. Branding will be tier two and less lucrative than hoped so playing squads will be reduced in cost & size. How to sustain it? The big brand is international & Tigers are just 1/12th of England. This suggests that a model similar to the Welsh, Irish & Scots (sometimes very successful) is more appropriate than what we have now. New Zealand have managed pretty well so far so they are worth a look.
Chris can you explain why the local radio station does not broadcast Tigers matches on all frequencies?? This is simply not fair to many fans who won't have Dab or be able to listen on line! 2nd class service that would never be entertained if it were a soccer match at the King Power! Poor very poor from RL! Your output is excellent & very informative so thanks for that Chris!