WRW WEDNESDAY: THIRTEEN MINUTES THAT CHANGED LEICESTER'S SEASON
Ellis Genge’s try - his first in ages in a Tigers shirt - in the 54th minute of Tigers’ European Challenge Cup Semi-Final win over Ulster, completed a quite extraordinary quarter-hour of play.
Within it, Tigers added 15 points in as many minutes scoring two tries and while no doubt helped by an unfortunate “rugby incident” injury to scrum-half John Cooney, the change from an insipid first half was as a stark a contrast as it gets.
Leicester did get their breaks after half-time but they all came from pressure - Baloucoune holding on, Stockdale’s sliced kick into touch. The impressive thing is how ruthless Tigers were after that, with ball in hand.
With Nadolo restored to fitness, Tigers now have options and a variety of attack when they get ball on or around halfway from setpiece.
They could maul it (though that didn’t work well in the first half ), Ford’s spiral can go up or the cross-field kick towards the far wing or Nadolo/AN Other can take it straight up the 10/12 channel. There is more than enough variety there to keep a team guessing from first phase and with ruthlessness in the clearout, to sustain moves in the longer term.
It’s not necessarily subtle and only after that come the greater subtleties, such as Ford’s delaying of the pass or an outside break from Steward or Moroni. But with more ball in the opposition half, it would only take 40-50 minutes of that hyper-edge to beat most teams.
The challenge now with a Final against Montpellier to come and the remaining five games of the Premiership, is to see that level of intensity in the future.
BEEF - AND THE LACK OF IT
Plenty of beef used to fine effect last weekend, but sometimes you see where beef is lacking and that was in the tale of American investment being linked with Tigers. Nice piece in Sunday’s Rugby Paper though about Martin Johnson’s link with Bleddyn.
The story is a reminder that the club is open to new investors. But as anyone with links to the Premiership will tell you and as WRW has been teling you consistently, Leicester and the other 12 Premiership shareholders have been looking for investment for the last 18 months…
Also, anyone who has studied these matters would pour cold water on the idea of MSD Capital buying any club, be it Leicester, Saracens or any one else. They’ve never done it before and are explicitly a finance firm, offering loans to sporting clubs who often struggle to get that in the high street. For example, MSD Capital provided the finance for the recent takeover of Burnley and also more locally, at Derby County.
Here’s the kicker. MSD generally provide loans at - wait for it - 9% interest paid back over 2 years. That’s eye-wateringly high.
After securing a loan package worth £13 million with Government-backed loans at 2% over 4 years and a potential 2 year repayment holiday, it would be some news if Tigers replaced that with a private sector package nearly FIVE times the interest rate.
MVM Holdings are a reputable private equity firm already involved with healthcare but have developed exposure to sporting markets in recent years. Owned by a South African-born US-based investment manager Marco Masotti, MVM has already obtained a 51% stake in the Sharks, in Durban.
There has been no hint yet that MVM would seek to set up a global group of clubs, which a number of Premier League football clubs have done, including Leicester City. Such a scenario is not impossible, although anything involving ownership of both a Pro14/16 club and a Premiership club would surely run into regulatory concerns.
Suppose an MVM buyout of Tigers were to happen for the sake of argument. Where are the gains to be had, where are the revenues to be generated? Masotti was quite plain to the Times in January what he wants from his investment in the Sharks:
The short answer, from Masotti, is this: “Rugby hasn’t been managed in the best way” and “a more global vision will be helpful” to a sport “organised in an ad hoc manner” with some “cultural issues”. All true.
The cultural issues are interesting. Masotti has observed the rise of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and the marketing of its athletes and then looks at our rugby players who are so indoctrinated in team ethic that they are averse to any kind of superstar profiling. Masotti talks of “exciting a younger demographic” and “making rugby cool”. A clue here is that his new strategic partner at the Sharks is Roc Nation, the celebrity management agency, co-owned by the musician Jay-Z, that the England lock Maro Itoje joined recently.
Masotti sees gains here. He also sees clear gains in the potential of a global calendar and better competitions; maybe none of these new investors would have had faith in all this happening if CVC hadn’t plunged in first. What is clear is that all investors now see a sport, valued at a cataclysmic low because of the pandemic, that is welcoming new money with open arms.
Masotti also sees a clear win in South Africa. He has bought a team that are about to start playing in the Pro14 (though it will then be the Pro16) before, it is hoped, joining the Heineken Champions Cup.
“I am buying into a relationship with Europe,” he says — which does not augur well for New Zealand or Australia. “All the action is likely to be in Europe. In ten years’ time, all the top players will be playing in the European leagues and the Heineken Cup will be the top club competition on the planet.”
He sounds like an investor that would keep both Peter Tom and Tom Scott happy, but we appear to be way off anything changing with regard to ownership of Tigers anytime soon.
LIONS PREDICTIONS
Tomorrow all the uncertainty around the Lions selections will be over and we will find out who is due to tour South Africa.
Personally, I’d be delighted if they cancelled the whole thing and announced a proper European Championship this summer with South Africa and Japan as guest sides. But I know I’m in a tiny minority there.
The whisper is that there may be some surprises unveiled by Mr Gatland tomorrow, though. Let’s see what happens, but a reduced 36-man squad, with a 20-16 forwards-backs split looks distinctly possible, assuming 3 scrum-halves and three fly-halves.
There seem to be only two Tigers candidates in the frame which avoid a Leicester-free Lions tour for the first time since 1968.
Genge
With no Lions email supposedly, Ellis Genge faces even stiffer loosehead competition from among others, Mako Vunipola, Wyn Jones, Rory Sutherland, Cian Healy and Joe Marler.
Scotland’s Sutherland appears to be injured with some doubt as to whether he will be fit in time. I noticed the Daily Mail this morning had Woodward, Andy Nicol, Mike Phillips and a certain Geordan Murphy all plumping for Sutherland, so let’s see.
It feels like Healy’s time has been and gone so if both are left on the sidelines, that leaves 3 from 4. Vunipola is probably one of the players who Gatland would take a chance on from the Saracens camp. For one, Jones had a handy Six Nations and is bound to tour.
If Sutherland doesn’t make it, that leaves one place between Marler, Healy and Genge and while Genge is by far the better ball-carrier of the three and I’d argue as good a scrummager, Gatland may well go for Marler as he did in 2017. The London press have definitely been making his case too.
But a word of warning - would the Boks be worried by Vunipola and Marler at scrum-time any more than they were in the 2019 World Cup Final?
Ford to miss out?
Ford has been outrageously maligned in my eyes and may well have to settle for standby status to the tour, at best.
The Test midfield options for the Lions looks congested, but it really shouldn’t be and this affects the fly-half conundrum, sadly not to Ford’s favour. Farrell has played at 12 so often in part, because so few English options to him have emerged. Both Jones and Lancaster have had to pick him there, but he will tour.
I do worry that Gatland will make the same mistake as in 2017, when Farrell started the First Test as pivot. He was far better at 12 in the latter two Tests.
The form inside centre in the home nations isn’t even English anyway. He’s Irish, his name is Robbie Henshaw and if he doesn’t break down as in 2017, then he has to start. Even if Manu is fit, I cannot see him, Jonathan Davies or even young Redpath getting past him.
Who is likeliest to get the best out of Henshaw most quickly in an abbreviated tour? That is his old mate Jonny Sexton who has to tour and I would take a chance on starting him in the First Test. That’s one fly-half spot gone. Dan Biggar’s form leaves him a certainty to go which makes two, leaving Finn Russell, Ford and other wildcards like Marcus Smith chasing one spot.
I can see Farrell being the third fly-half or back-up centre and is a decent bench option covering both, but he will tour even if Davies goes too. There may not be room for Finn Russell, if that is the case and that will leave Ford struggling.
However…
ACADEMY TIME
Quick word for the Academy boys beaten 18-15 by Gloucester in Loughborough.
Remember it’s about development and while it’s nice to win trophies at this age, it’s far better to see these young talents progress and learn.
Above all, it’s just good to see them out there..Good luck to them at Cheltenham where they face Bath this Saturday.
All photos (C) Mick Bannister - please, let’s credit the photo when used..
QUICK HITS
Pace and vision seems to run in the Veaniu gene pool:
An ex-Tiger also scoring some decent tries here…two for Jonah Holmes this week:
RUNNING FROM DEEP
A lot to read this week I appreciate….but just a little more for you:
Timana Tahu - the former cross-code international, is looking at reimagining tackle technique in what appears to be a very scientific and structured process. The whole, fascinating piece is in the Guardian:
It was while in the US that he took some coaching clinics and approached universities and schools. The common reprise was: where is your scientific evidence?
So he went to get some. In 2017, he began formal research with the University of Newcastle. Backed by the NRL, senior biomechanics lecturer Dr Suzi Edwards, neuropsychologist Dr Andrew Gardner and some colleagues used 3D motion capture to gather data from a group of amateur players performing different tackling techniques.
“When concussions occur during collision sports, they’re typically always during the tackle, and most of the time it’s to the tackler, not the ball carrier,” Edwards says. “So we want to have a look at the mechanism of injury in the tackle and understand what’s actually happening, and how we can protect the tackler and the ball carrier to reduce their risk of sustaining a concussion.”
Good luck to all involved with this research. It sounds a possible game changer.
The All Blacks are edging closer to a private equity deal of their own in a Financial Times story from last week (apologies I missed it for obvious reasons.)
The Pacific nation’s 26 provincial rugby unions voted unanimously on Thursday to back a proposed NZ$387.5m (US$281m) investment in New Zealand Rugby by Silver Lake, a $75bn California buyout firm known for its bets on technology groups.
The contentious decision paved the way for high-stakes negotiations between the game’s administrators and the New Zealand Rugby Players Association, whose approval is required for the private equity transaction to proceed.
AND FINALLY
Thanks for the kind words on last Friday’s tribute to Bleddyn. He meant so much to me and to you too.
One ray of sunshine in the darkness of the last few days has arrived to son Gareth, whose wife gave birth to a daughter on Sunday - Evie Bethan Jones.
Look out for her playing for Wales or England in 20 years..maybe at fly-half.
See you Friday
Chris